Over roughly two decades, ending in 2003, psychologist Philip Tetlock collected 82,361 forecasts from 284 experts: academics, journalists, advisers. Verdict: their predictions barely beat chance and did worse than simple statistical models. The most famous pundits did even worse. The best performers were the “foxes,” who doubt and draw on many perspectives, rather than the “hedgehogs” devoted to one big idea.
Remembering is not replaying a recording — it is rebuilding. Each time you recall a memory, it becomes temporarily malleable and can be altered before being stored again. That is why two people can sincerely remember the same event… differently.
In 2003, Johnson and Goldstein compared European countries. Where you must tick a box to become a donor, consent rates ranged from 4% to 28%. Where you're a donor by default unless you opt out, they topped 85%. People aren't more generous on one side; most simply stick with whatever option was chosen for them.